International price transmission on soft wheat markets: which role for policy variables in cointegration relationships?

This paper aims at considering policy regimes while studying international price transmission mechanisms. The focus is on the soft wheat market between the United States and the European Union in the years 1978-2003. EU domestic and border policies are expected to play a strong role; a theoretical framework is developed in which the basic idea is that the intervention price acts as a threshold above which the EU and the US price can interact. A composite variable, equal to the maximum between the intervention and the US price, is then introduced in a cointegration model and its relation with the EU price is studied. In addition to this, other models are estimated, in which the adjustment coefficients and the parameters of the cointegrating vector are allowed to vary according to the policy regime in place. All models yield consistent results. The EU price reaction to the long run relations suggests that the role of the US price can be understood only if policy regimes are adequately accounted for. To which extent the US price adjusts to disequilibria requires further research.International price transmission, Cointegration, Common Agricultural Policy, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade,

Agricultural Price Transmission Across Space and Commodities During Price Bubbles

This paper analyses the horizontal transmission of cereal price shocks both across different market places and across different commodities. The analysis is carried out using Italian and international weekly spot (cash) price data and concentrating the attention on years 2006-2010, a period of generalized exceptional exuberance and consequent rapid drop of agricultural prices. The work aims at investigating how price transmission may be affected during price bubbles. The properties of price time series are firstly explored to assess which data generation process may have eventually produced the observed patterns. Secondly, the interdependence across prices is specified and estimated adopting appropriate cointegration techniques.Price Transmission, Price Bubbles, Time Series Properties, Cointegration, Demand and Price Analysis, Q110, C320,

Making the world market price endogenous within the AGMEMOD modelling framework: an econometric solution

This paper aims at making the world price endogenous within the AGMEMOD modelling approach. This approach constructs country-level commodity market models where supply and demand sides are equalized on the basis of the observed domestic prices. These prices are endogenous as they depend (price transmission equation) on a EU key-price, which is, in turn, endogenously determined by the world price (price formation equation). The world prices, however, are assumed to be exogenous. To make the world price endogenous, we propose a system of equations where the EU key-price and the world price are simultaneously determined. This system of equations, written in a dynamic and error-correction form (VECM), substitutes the usual price-formation equation, while price transmission across EU countries remains unaffected. This approach is here applied to the case of soft wheat and results compared to those obtained by using the conventional AGMEMOD approach.Price Formation and Transmission, Commodity Market Models, VECM, Demand and Price Analysis, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Q110, Q170,

Do Price Uncertainties Affect the Use of Policy Flexibilities? The Selection of Sensitive Products in WTO Agricultural Negotiations

In a context in which price uncertainty is likely to increase, expected market trends need to be taken carefully into account while negotiating international trade policy rules. This paper aims at analyzing what is their influence on the use of policy flexibilities in the context of WTO agricultural negotiations. In particular, within the market access pillar, we focus on the selection of sensitive products. Our model, TRIMAG (Tariff Reduction Impact Model for Agriculture), defined at the 8-digit level, optimizes the domestic agricultural value added subject to a maximum number of sensitive tariff lines, accounting for various future international price scenarios. Furthermore, we test the use of alternative options for the implementation of “tariff simplification”. Findings confirm that the future expected development of world and domestic prices plays an important role in the selection of sensitive products, and that tariff simplification doesn’t affect the results, if provisions to ensure the neutrality of the exercise are put in place. Furthermore, TRIMAG can be considered as a tariff aggregation tool that can be linked to agricultural simulation models that operate at a higher level of aggregation.WTO agricultural negotiations, market access, sensitive products, International Relations/Trade, F13, Q17,

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis for policy decision making: An introductory guide

The European Commission is committed to transparent and evidence based policy making throughout the policy cycle. Simulation models are increasingly used in impact assessments to provide support to policy makers across a wide range of policy areas. To ensure model quality in support to policy, understanding and communicating uncertainty in model outputs is essential. In modelling, accounting for uncertainties and identifying its most important sources is an inherent issue. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis should be systematically performed in modelling activities in support to policy making. This report aims at highlighting the added value that uncertainty and sensitivity analysis can bring to modelling activities to inform policy makers, and presents a specific software that has been developed within the Commission to help modellers and analysts.JRC.I.2-Foresight, Modelling, Behavioural Insights & Design for Polic

Modelling Inventory and Knowledge Management System of the European Commission (MIDAS)

The Modelling Inventory and Knowledge Management System of the European Commission (MIDAS) is a Commission-wide knowledge management tool for modelling, enabling enhanced transparency and traceability of models in use for EC policy making. It forms an integral part of the Competence Centre on Modelling (CC-MOD) of the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission (JRC). This document describes MIDAS, by providing a bird's-eye view of the MIDAS content, architecture, and functionality, and identifying the benefits of the system for the organisation and in the context of the Better Regulation Agenda.JRC.I.2-Foresight, Modelling, Behavioural Insights & Design for Polic

avian metapneumovirus circulation in italian broiler farms

Abstract With increasing frequency, avian Metapneumovirus (aMPV) is reported to induce respiratory signs in chickens. An adequate knowledge of current aMPV prevalence among Italian broilers is lacking, with little information available on its economical and health impact on the poultry industry. In order to collect preliminary data on the epidemiological context of aMPV in broiler flocks, a survey was performed in areas of Northern Italy with high poultry density from 2014 to 2016. Upper respiratory tract swabs were collected and processed by A and B subtype-specific multiplex real-time reverse transcription PCR (RT-PCR). Samples were also screened for infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) by generic RT-PCR and sequencing. Productive data and respiratory signs were detailed where possible. The high prevalence of aMPV was confirmed in broilers older than 26 d and also attested in IBV-negative farms. All aMPV detections belonged to subtype B. Italian strain genetic variability was evaluated by the partial attachment (G) gene sequencing of selected strains and compared with contemporary turkey strains and previously published aMPV references, revealing no host specificity and the progressive evolution of this virus in Italy

The debate on the EU Better Regulation Agenda: a literature review

This report addresses the debate on the Better Regulation Agenda adopted by the European Commission in 2015 (BR 2015). The review is structured according to the following major areas: i) evidence-based policy-making, including methodology and quantification; ii) integrated policy cycle (including Impact Assessments, and evaluation); iii) stakeholder consultation, participation and involvement; iv) level of regulation, including REFIT; v) regulatory scrutiny and quality assurance; vi) transparency in policy making; vii) inter-institutional relations; viii) subsidiarity and proportionality. For each of these areas, the main messages of the various authors on achievements, remaining issues and what can be further improved have been identified, analysed and brought together. The debate addresses a wide range of aspects, from the technical to the political level. The presence of often little consensus, together with the still scarce empirical evidence, makes a synthesis very challenging. The great majority of the publications welcome the ambition of the reform and one or more specific aspects of the BR 2015, which is seen as further strengthening the EU regulation system. At the same time, authors also point out at the remaining issues and make observations on what could be further improved.JRC.I.2-Foresight, Modelling, Behavioural Insights & Design for Polic

Semantic Text Analysis tool: SeTA

An ever-growing number and length of documents, number and depth of topics covered by legislation, and ever new phrases and their slowly changing meaning, these are all contributing factors that make policy analysis more and more complex. As implication, human policy analysts and policy developers face increasing entanglement of both content and semantical levels. To overcome several of these issues, JRC has developed a central pilot tool called AI-KEAPA to support policy analysis and development in any domain. Recent developments in big data, machine learning and especially in natural language processing allow converting unfathomable complexity of many hundreds of thousands of documents into a normalised high-dimensional vector space preserving the knowledge. Unstructured text in document corpora and big data sources, until recently considered just an archive, is quickly becoming core source of analytical information using text mining methods to extract qualitative and quantitative data. Semantic analysis allows us to extract better information for policy analysis from metadata titles and abstracts than from the structured human-entered descriptions. This digital assistant allows document search and extraction over many different sources, discovery of phrase meaning, context and temporal development. It can recommend most relevant documents including their semantic and temporal interdependencies. But most importantly, it helps bursting knowledge bubbles and fast-learning new domains. This way we hope to mainstream artificial intelligence into policy support. The tool is now fit for purpose. It was thoroughly tested in real-life conditions for about two years mainly in the area of legislative impact assessments for policy formulation, and other domains such as large data infrastructure analysis, agri-environmental measures or natural disasters, some of which are detailed in this document. This approach boosts the strategic JRC focus on application of scientific analysis and development. This service adds to the JRC competence and central position in semantic reasoning for policy analysis, active information recommendation, and inferred knowledge in policy design and development.JRC.I.3-Text and Data Minin

International price transmission on soft wheat markets: which role for policy variables in cointegration relationships?

This paper aims at considering policy regimes while studying international price transmission mechanisms. The focus is on the soft wheat market between the United States and the European Union in the years 1978-2003. EU domestic and border policies are expected to play a strong role; a theoretical framework is developed in which the basic idea is that the intervention price acts as a threshold above which the EU and the US price can interact. A composite variable, equal to the maximum between the intervention and the US price, is then introduced in a cointegration model and its relation with the EU price is studied. In addition to this, other models are estimated, in which the adjustment coefficients and the parameters of the cointegrating vector are allowed to vary according to the policy regime in place. All models yield consistent results. The EU price reaction to the long run relations suggests that the role of the US price can be understood only if policy regimes are adequately accounted for. To which extent the US price adjusts to disequilibria requires further research